You had me at Colorado: why McCain can't win

I've been pouring over the numbers this morning, and I feel like we have reached a point where I feel safe calling the election - for Sen. Barack Obama. Though Sen. John McCain has made headway with a certain swath of Americans (I'll get to that in a second) in his last push for office, I do not believe that it will be enough. Now you can't always count on the polls to give you an accurate picture of reality (whatever that is), but, they can give you a good sense of the direction things are going. Here are the latest national polls courtesy of one of my favorite sites, electoral-vote.com:

• Battleground (Obama +4)
• Diageo (Obama +5)
• Gallup expanded (Obama +9)
• IBD (Obama +6)
• Opinion Rsearch (Obama +5)
• Rasmussen (Obama +4)
• Research 2000 (Obama +8)
• Washington Post/ABC (Obama +9)
• YouGov (Obama +6)
• Zogby (Obama +6)

While these are not insurmountable numbers in terms of national polling, as McCain has had periods where he lead by similar margins, they do indicate that the very small bump that McCain received from his debate performance has subsided. The important thing to take from these numbers, is that voters are beginning to harden in their preferences, and moving them will become increasingly difficult. Neither candidate, at this point, seems to be able to move the polls in one direction or the other, meaning that McCain has to find some way to create cognitive dissonance and doubt about Obama if he hopes to win (and he must chose very carefully where he does it).

But as we all know, the battle is truly about the electoral college votes. And in looking at individual state polls, McCain is getting crushed in the most important swing states. His campaign admitted today that he will likely lose Colorado, which, in my opinion is like inaugurating his opponent two weeks before the election.

Here is why:

In order for Obama to gain the 270 electoral votes that he needs to win, he must carry all of the states that John Kerry won in 2004, including Pennsylvania, which Kerry won by a narrow 2.2 percent margin. Obama currently leads in all of those states by extremely wide double-digit margins, giving him 253 reliable electoral votes.

Additionally, voters in Iowa fell in love with Obama early on, while, McCain decried ethanol subsidies (oops). Iowa now favors Obama by double digits, despite favoring President George W. Bush in 2004. That gives Obama 260 reliable votes. From here, Obama needs just 10 more votes to win.

And in that 260 vote total, I have not included New Mexico, where I personally will helping out this coming weekend (assuring certain victory). The state has been in the Obama column for many weeks now, and the latest polls there show double digit leads for Obama. That gives Obama 265 electoral votes.

So whats left?

The remaining states where either candidate could realistically win are:

• Virginia (Obama +7 as of Oct. 19) = 13 votes
• Colorado (Obama +5 as of Oct. 19) = 9 votes
• North Carolina (Obama +2 as of Oct. 19) = 15 votes
• Ohio (Obama +2 as of Oct. 19) = 20 votes
• Missouri (Obama +2 as of Oct. 19) = 11 votes
• Nevada (Obama +4 as of Oct. 13) = 5 votes
• Florida (Obama +2 as of Oct. 19) = 27 votes
• Montana (McCain +4 as of Oct. 16) = 3 votes
• North Dakota (tied at 45% each as of Oct. 15) = 3 votes

In order for the good Senator from Arizona to become our next president, he must win ALL of these states. But, as I mentioned above: McCain is giving up on Colorado. Instead, he will go after Pennsylvania, which leans toward Obama by 12 percent, with Obama holding 52 percent to McCain's 40 percent according to the most recent poll by SurveyUSA on Oct. 19.

It seems strange that McCain would go after a state where Obama has such a huge lead, and the main stream media seems puzzled as to why McCain would cede Colorado - where the margin is only 5 percent. But, it doesn't take a genius to figure out what the McCain camp is looking at: its a simple demographic choice that aims to exploit the fervor among base Republicans over Obama's supposed associations to Ayers, ACORN and Reverend Wright, his supposed "socialist" agenda, and now, his stance on gay marriage.

As I reported last night, Gov. Sarah Palin has shifted her position on gay marriage; telling the Christian Broadcast Network that she would like to see a federal ban on gay marriage. If you look at the list of states again, they are all sensitive to the same social issues that helped Bush win in 2004. And given Obama's past troubles with "white working-class voters" in those states, and his troubles with Rev. Wright, it seems pretty clear what McCain plans on doing.

But will it work?

I suppose it's possible that he could manage to win every single one of those states based on social issues, as President Nixon did when he famously appealed to the "silent majority," like, say, Joe the Plumber. But, it just doesn't seem likely - or even plausible.

So here is what I expect:

McCain will keep calling Obama a socialist in his stump speeches. His campaign will continue the "robo-calls" and mailers making reference to Obama's associations with Ayers and ACORN. He will add to this, criticisms of Rev. Wright that he had previously called off limits. And he will expand all these elements to his television advertising.

In McCain's defense, he has no other options. If it works, I think the strategy could net him Ohio, North Dakota, Montana, North Carolina and Nevada, and perhaps Missouri.

That would give Obama, in my estimation, Colorado and Pennsylvania, as well as Florida and Virgina. Because of the enormity of his rallies in Missouri, I am tempted to give him that state. But he trailed there for nearly the entire campaign, and is only leading now by 2 points. It will be interesting to see if Kansas City and St. Louis can deliver the state for Obama - I'm just not sure. I'm also a bit less solid about Florida, but I am counting on several hundred thousand registered African American voters that did not bother to vote in the previous election, when Bush barely won.

If the scenario plays out like I think it will, then Obama will end up with 313 to McCain's 225 (giving MO to McCain). If McCain's new strategy fails, or if he sees the writing on the wall and decides not to tarnish his legacy by running such a negative campaign, then this election will be a land-slide.

I told you all of that, to tell you this: barring a disaster of epic proportions, this election is over. Obama only needs one state. And that state, my friends, is Colorado (thank god for conventions).

In essence, when it comes to this election: "You had me at Colorado."

I'll follow this up with some great charts that I'm making later on. For now, prediction made.

Update: It looks like I'm not alone. Today, PEW research, (one of the most trusted research organizations in America, and the basis for the National Conference of State Legislatures and Stateline.org) released a poll showing Obama up by a wide 52-38 margin. Pew Research Center Director said that a lack of confidence in McCain is the likely cause.

Tom Mann of the Brookings Institute said that "McCain does not have a shot absent some cataclysmic event."

Media Matters takes aim at main stream media

With their usual clarity and solid research, left-leaning Media Matters goes to work on how the main stream media treats McCain, lamenting their shoddy reporting and utter lack of research. See full story here.

FactCheck.Org adresses McCain's ACORN claims

Here is a report from FactCheck.org (as published at Newsweek) on the McCain campaign's charges against Obama and ACORN.

Powell stops McCain's momentum, conservatives play race card

Just when Sen. John McCain had managed to curb Sen. Barack Obama's momentum, things turn against him yet again. This morning on "Meet the Press" Gen. Colin Powell, a centrist Republican and former Secretary of State under President George W. Bush, endorsed Obama for president. Though this was expected, and it will likely not make a huge difference in the eventual results, Powell's endorsement of Obama is important for several reasons:

First: it may very well blunt McCain's turnaround after he had managed to gain some momentum this week - showing the old John McCain on the David Letterman Show and during the Alfred E. Smith Dinner, and putting in a reasonable debate performance (video at the bottom);

Second: it will be media fodder for at least a couple of days, keeping the subject on Obama and his growing list of endorsements by conservatives;

Lastly: Powell made a very solid case for why it is important to repair America's tattered image abroad, and further more, why Obama is the right person to do it.

And, not only did Powell endorse Obama, he indicted McCain's negative campaign tactics, which I will get to here in a later post, and derided the Republican establishment for "narrowing" its focus to more distracting issues when the important issues are those like the economy, energy and national security. And, it would seem to me that quite a few republican are feeling the same way.

"I have some concerns about the direction the party has taken in recent years. It has moved more to the right than I would like to see it, but that's a choice the party makes," Powell said.

He later added that "the party has moved even further to the right and Gov. Palin has indicated and even further rightward shift. I would be concerned about two more conservative appointments to the Supreme Court, but that is what we would be looking at in a McCain-Palin administration."



There will no doubt be some upset Republicans in the wake of Powell's endorsement and, already, conservative media types are begging the race question - since Powell, too, is half African American. The Drudge Report's first headline on the subject, even with all that Powell had to say, was that he had said it "wasn't about race." In fairness to the folks at Drudge, they did not right the story, just the headline. http://www.drudgereport.com/

Others were more direct, outright suggesting that Powell is racist. The perfect example is Rush Limbaugh (surprise) who asked which "white liberals" Powell had endorsed.

The Politico reported on a Limbaugh email which stated: "Secretary Powell says his endorsement is not about race. OK, fine. I am now researching his past endorsements to see if I can find all the inexperienced, very liberal, white candidates he has endorsed. I'll let you know what I come up with."

Fox News, meanwhile, gave the story a dinky headline in the corner of the front page, prefacing the story by mentioning that Powell had helped to sell the Iraq war to the American people - a subtle stab at his judgment perhaps. Also note in the right column of this page where I have top headlines that Fox does not have a single story about the endorsement on their news feed.

Update: before I could even post this entry, Fox News buried the story - it no longer appears on the front page.

As I pointed out in my previous (and first) post on Friday, McCain's debate performance had cooled his "burning hemorrhoids" and helped him recover a few points in the polls. Well now, it would seem, he is having another flare-up. It is not so much that people will be swayed by Powell's endorsement, but rather, it serves as further evidence that McCain is scaring away the more thoughtful moderate Republicans, while, Obama continues to solidify his commander in chief credentials.

This endorsement won't move the polls, but, it will stabilize them in a way that may prevent McCain from gaining a momentum advantage. In essence, Powell just granted moderate Republicans permission to vote for Obama despite his perceived lack of foreign policy experience, and, more importantly, stole two to three days of media time for McCain to close the gap.

Mark Halperin of Time Magazine has an interesting take on just that:

"The decision is not only symbolic but, in terms of timing, one of great tactical importance. Powell is a brand unto himself in American politics, and clearly transcends the media's tendency to hype endorsements more than their actual importance to voters. However, the indisputable benefit that Powell brings Obama is that the former Secretary of State and general is sure to block out any chance McCain has of winning the next two or three days of news coverage, as the media swoons over the implications of the choice. It is simple political math: McCain has 15 days to close a substantial gap, and he will now lose at least one fifth of his total remaining time."

McCain releives burning Hemorrhoid

As I predicted after the debate on Wednesday, McCain’s debate performance appears to have stemmed the flow of bad news about the course of his campaign. While it was not exactly a stellar performance, McCain appeared, for once, to understand the state of the country and the plight of, at least, the Joe Plumber’s of the world.

Interesting side note on Joe the Plumber: as expected, the blogs have gone to work finding out who he is. There are a few stories out today claiming that he is: 1) behind on his taxes; 2) not licensed as a plumber, and; 3) is a plant related to none other than Charles Keating (yes the infamous Keating from the Keating Five savings and loan scandal)!

See more here.

Now, I always like to wait a news-cycle or two before I jump on these things, but, it sure is nice when I get another prediction right: that someone would find a way to paint him as a plant. It was just too convenient that Joe Wurzelbacher (his real name), just happened to be preparing to buy a business that fell just barely above Obama’s tax increase threshold. It was just too convenient that the whole thing made it on TV and exploded all over YouTube just days before the debate. And it was awfully convenient that McCain was able to prepare such an effective rhetorical use for good old Joe.

In the mean time, McCain has been trying to tie the media’s treatment of Joe to the Obama campaign – mostly because that is what he always does. It’s just basic reflex for McCain and the GOP to tie Obama to the media (and anything else he can think of) regardless of how baseless the claim may be. The truth on this (whatever that may be) will come to light in the next few days. I’ll weigh in again then.

Now, as for McCain’s polling numbers: he picked up just a couple of points in most polls. The reason is that he managed to pacify conservative-leaning voters that were prepared to jump ship if McCain had yet another disappointing debate performance. In essence, McCain managed to put an ice cube on his burning hemorrhoid. But, he will need a lot more than that to make it go away.

There was a lot of other news today. But, I spent most of the day in meetings and putting together the RSS feeds for the blog. And, since this is the very first blog entry, I will ask you to forgive me my hasty epigram.